{"punk":3906,"name":"CryptoPunk #3906","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3906","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3906.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Earring","Bandana","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":35.9381,"usd":81710,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6644,"high_eth":39.5399,"low_usd":74267,"high_usd":89899},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.689,"high_eth":43.5028,"low_usd":67502,"high_usd":98909},"sigma_log":0.0955,"multiple_of_floor":1.1826,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":35.4651,"usd":80634,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2345,"high_eth":39.0195,"low_usd":73289,"high_usd":88716},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.2982,"high_eth":42.9302,"low_usd":66613,"high_usd":97607},"sigma_log":0.0955,"multiple_of_floor":1.1826,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.45,"date":"2019-09-17","block":8565226,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":166,"adjusted_eth":44.985},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-02-06","block":14150159,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":30.0114},{"eth":79.99,"date":"2022-03-11","block":14368512,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":32.4176},{"eth":71.69,"date":"2022-04-16","block":14598056,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":33.757}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.1,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0364,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42.15,"date":"2025-04-21","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0971,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-04-16","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9971,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-01-19","punk":7962,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.4709,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9574,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.629,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":1717,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6354,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1044,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":46}],"summary":["Estimate 35.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3906","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}