{"punk":3926,"name":"CryptoPunk #3926","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3926","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3926.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Earring","Do-rag"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.1977,"usd":85287,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.1625,"high_eth":38.5193,"low_usd":77932,"high_usd":93335},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.389,"high_eth":42.1544,"low_usd":71212,"high_usd":102144},"sigma_log":0.0902,"multiple_of_floor":1.1582,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.1977,"usd":85287,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.1625,"high_eth":38.5193,"low_usd":77932,"high_usd":93335},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.389,"high_eth":42.1544,"low_usd":71212,"high_usd":102144},"sigma_log":0.0902,"multiple_of_floor":1.1582,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":58,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":58,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":65,"ask_usd":145325,"z":6.8,"z_text":"6.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-09T14:46:11.000Z","days_listed":453},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.75,"date":"2020-05-17","block":10080238,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":28.4906},{"eth":64,"date":"2022-12-06","block":16128279,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":30.4138},{"eth":71.95,"date":"2022-12-06","block":16128609,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":34.1917},{"eth":75,"date":"2023-01-12","block":16387675,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":164,"adjusted_eth":34.2744},{"eth":79.99,"date":"2023-03-20","block":16865502,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":318,"adjusted_eth":36.8373},{"eth":62,"date":"2023-04-02","block":16961837,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":153,"adjusted_eth":31.4135},{"eth":65,"date":"2023-04-02","block":16963425,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":32.9335},{"eth":66,"date":"2023-04-04","block":16977607,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":32.3663},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-07-20","block":22963050,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":31.5156}],"comparables":[{"eth":54,"date":"2025-08-06","punk":9421,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3838,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":9421,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4451,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.3992,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.64,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2224,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0568,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.69,"date":"2026-08-08","punk":9950,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.459,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":269,"date":"2026-08-05","punk":2311,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":257.8836,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.92,"date":"2026-08-03","punk":5322,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.8958,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.4899,"date":"2026-07-25","punk":4325,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.0798,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0832,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 35.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.2 to 38.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.4 to 42.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3926","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}