{"punk":3944,"name":"CryptoPunk #3944","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3944","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3944.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Police Cap","3D Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":54.1483,"usd":123113,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":41.3647,"high_eth":70.8826,"low_usd":94048,"high_usd":161161},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.5991,"high_eth":92.7885,"low_usd":71845,"high_usd":210966},"sigma_log":0.2693,"multiple_of_floor":1.7818,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":53.4356,"usd":121493,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":40.8202,"high_eth":69.9496,"low_usd":92810,"high_usd":159039},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.1832,"high_eth":91.5672,"low_usd":70899,"high_usd":208190},"sigma_log":0.2693,"multiple_of_floor":1.7818,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.8},{"pct":76.1,"beta":0.5659,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":30,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11900710,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":191,"adjusted_eth":44.985},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2021-04-04","block":12172768,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":13,"adjusted_eth":68.5271},{"eth":95,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12965007,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":64.11},{"eth":96,"date":"2021-08-13","block":13017433,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":184,"adjusted_eth":65.8066}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-01-22","punk":7582,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0165,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2025-11-17","punk":7582,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.211,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.9398,"date":"2025-01-09","punk":8934,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.4952,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.69,"date":"2024-12-24","punk":8934,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8396,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.48,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":7582,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.0086,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5857,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.8271,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":43.5,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":6687,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.0827,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.5143,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Police Cap","sales_12m":29}],"summary":["Estimate 54.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 41.4 to 70.9 ETH, 2σ range 31.6 to 92.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Muttonchops -9%, 3D Glasses +76%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3944","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}