{"punk":3949,"name":"CryptoPunk #3949","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3949","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3949.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Half Shaved","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":31.1719,"usd":70873,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5769,"high_eth":32.8528,"low_usd":67247,"high_usd":74695},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.0637,"high_eth":34.6243,"low_usd":63806,"high_usd":78723},"sigma_log":0.0525,"multiple_of_floor":1.0257,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.7616,"usd":69940,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1876,"high_eth":32.4204,"low_usd":66362,"high_usd":73712},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6943,"high_eth":34.1686,"low_usd":62967,"high_usd":77687},"sigma_log":0.0525,"multiple_of_floor":1.0257,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":57.5896,"ask_usd":128443,"z":11.69,"z_text":"11.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-10-03T23:41:35.000Z","days_listed":398},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.5},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":15.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22.5,"date":"2021-07-10","block":12801856,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":374,"adjusted_eth":35.7402},{"eth":25.5,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12929843,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":158,"adjusted_eth":29.5041},{"eth":46.5,"date":"2025-10-03","block":23497662,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":71,"adjusted_eth":29.3772},{"eth":47.46,"date":"2025-10-03","block":23500603,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":29.9837},{"eth":47.9914,"date":"2025-10-03","block":23500603,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":30.3194}],"comparables":[{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-18","punk":8955,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3109,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":6263,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3875,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.5,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8955,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3131,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":6263,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":6573,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9381,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6631,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2998,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6631,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3638,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-07-27","punk":9945,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1843,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0148,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Half Shaved","sales_12m":13}],"summary":["Estimate 31.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 32.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.1 to 34.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3949","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}