{"punk":3966,"name":"CryptoPunk #3966","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3966","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3966.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Earring","Vampire Hair","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.6064,"usd":72901,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8278,"high_eth":35.6438,"low_usd":66688,"high_usd":79692},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.2861,"high_eth":38.9641,"low_usd":61006,"high_usd":87115},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0729,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":32.6064,"usd":72901,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8278,"high_eth":35.6438,"low_usd":66688,"high_usd":79692},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.2861,"high_eth":38.9641,"low_usd":61006,"high_usd":87115},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0729,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T01:04:35.000Z","block":26359575,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":11,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T01:04:35.000Z","block":26359575,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":11,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0968,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0231,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":71},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":62,"date":"2021-12-24","block":13864954,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":28.9874},{"eth":71.99,"date":"2022-02-11","block":14184565,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":32.6973}],"comparables":[{"eth":45.45,"date":"2025-04-05","punk":791,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.4307,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40,"date":"2024-11-28","punk":791,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4814,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.49,"date":"2026-09-02","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3201,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":269,"date":"2026-08-05","punk":2311,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":257.8836,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.92,"date":"2026-08-03","punk":5322,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.8958,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":2276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.2513,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0069,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 32.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.8 to 35.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.3 to 39.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3966","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}