{"punk":3978,"name":"CryptoPunk #3978","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3978","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3978.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Smile","Mole","Wild Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":44.2998,"usd":100721,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":37.1506,"high_eth":52.8248,"low_usd":84467,"high_usd":120104},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.1552,"high_eth":62.9904,"low_usd":70835,"high_usd":143217},"sigma_log":0.176,"multiple_of_floor":1.4577,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":43.7167,"usd":99395,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.6616,"high_eth":52.1295,"low_usd":83355,"high_usd":118523},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7451,"high_eth":62.1613,"low_usd":69903,"high_usd":141332},"sigma_log":0.176,"multiple_of_floor":1.4577,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":80,"ask_usd":178425,"z":3.36,"z_text":"3.4σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-06-08T14:07:35.000Z","days_listed":515},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.9},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":40,"date":"2021-04-18","block":12265675,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":70,"adjusted_eth":60.7392},{"eth":46,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12934689,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":342,"adjusted_eth":46},{"eth":70,"date":"2021-08-12","block":13009679,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":45.637},{"eth":80,"date":"2023-03-29","block":16933016,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":294,"adjusted_eth":36.6011},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2024-08-27","block":20622309,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":123,"adjusted_eth":42.0807},{"eth":60,"date":"2025-04-07","block":22219952,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":185,"adjusted_eth":42.2494}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.2385,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1835,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.99,"date":"2026-07-30","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6496,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":8632,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.1067,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-04-27","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9026,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.25,"date":"2026-03-27","punk":3425,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.4253,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.44,"date":"2026-01-20","punk":6012,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":48.9264,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.12,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":2211,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0578,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.3135,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":52}],"summary":["Estimate 44.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 37.2 to 52.8 ETH, 2σ range 31.2 to 63.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Smile +17%, Mole -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3978","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}