{"punk":3982,"name":"CryptoPunk #3982","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3982","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3982.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Smile","Knitted Cap","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":39.6621,"usd":96105,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.8584,"high_eth":45.1279,"low_usd":84465,"high_usd":109349},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.6364,"high_eth":51.3469,"low_usd":74235,"high_usd":124418},"sigma_log":0.1291,"multiple_of_floor":1.3051,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":39.6621,"usd":96105,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.8584,"high_eth":45.1279,"low_usd":84465,"high_usd":109349},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.6364,"high_eth":51.3469,"low_usd":74235,"high_usd":124418},"sigma_log":0.1291,"multiple_of_floor":1.3051,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":31.5,"date":"2021-05-10","block":12404932,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":234,"adjusted_eth":53.1825},{"eth":43.5,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12936190,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":273,"adjusted_eth":44.0802},{"eth":90,"date":"2022-06-20","block":14995603,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":39.9285},{"eth":96,"date":"2022-07-20","block":15179349,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":231,"adjusted_eth":35.3672},{"eth":90,"date":"2022-08-11","block":15321184,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":36.6243},{"eth":85.2,"date":"2022-08-17","block":15361328,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":37.6944},{"eth":84.95,"date":"2022-10-14","block":15745525,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":39.1215}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":7925,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.8713,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-03-29","punk":2256,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9395,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.69,"date":"2026-02-21","punk":9788,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":53.7332,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.015,"date":"2025-12-08","punk":5269,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2945,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":73,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":7925,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.2049,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":5233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.3338,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":62,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":9788,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2412,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2027,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 39.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.9 to 45.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.6 to 51.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Smile +17%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3982","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}