{"punk":40,"name":"CryptoPunk #40","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/40","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/40.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Smile","Chinstrap","Bandana"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":40.8162,"usd":92801,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.4569,"high_eth":46.9856,"low_usd":80616,"high_usd":106828},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.8013,"high_eth":54.0874,"low_usd":70031,"high_usd":122975},"sigma_log":0.1408,"multiple_of_floor":1.3431,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":40.279,"usd":91579,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.9902,"high_eth":46.3672,"low_usd":79555,"high_usd":105422},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3959,"high_eth":53.3755,"low_usd":69109,"high_usd":121356},"sigma_log":0.1408,"multiple_of_floor":1.3431,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.4},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":47.5,"date":"2025-06-04","punk":9992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3151,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":88.88,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":82.1928,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.2,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":4023,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.2,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":1717,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6354,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.4,"date":"2026-05-19","punk":9016,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2433,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-05-11","punk":9016,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8385,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-01-08","punk":6056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.3798,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56.33,"date":"2025-08-11","punk":7190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7936,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2316,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 40.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.5 to 47.0 ETH, 2σ range 30.8 to 54.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Smile +17%, Chinstrap -5%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/40","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}