{"punk":4009,"name":"CryptoPunk #4009","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4009","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4009.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Headband","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.5472,"usd":71595,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.958,"high_eth":31.2268,"low_usd":67745,"high_usd":75665},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.4542,"high_eth":33.0018,"low_usd":64101,"high_usd":79966},"sigma_log":0.0553,"multiple_of_floor":0.9723,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.5472,"usd":71595,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.958,"high_eth":31.2268,"low_usd":67745,"high_usd":75665},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.4542,"high_eth":33.0018,"low_usd":64101,"high_usd":79966},"sigma_log":0.0553,"multiple_of_floor":0.9723,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":28,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":28,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-3.7,"beta":-0.0376,"term":"attr:Headband","label":"Headband","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.062,"date":"2017-07-11","block":4008308,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":5.3834},{"eth":0.35,"date":"2017-07-19","block":4041497,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":134,"adjusted_eth":35.455},{"eth":0.47,"date":"2019-09-25","block":8617161,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":50,"adjusted_eth":47.611},{"eth":48,"date":"2022-06-15","block":14969985,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":175,"adjusted_eth":29.8918},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-07-07","block":15092176,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":629,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-07-07","block":15092176,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":637,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":22.99,"date":"2024-08-20","block":20568985,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":1216,"adjusted_eth":24.192}],"comparables":[{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8983,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.27,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9542,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.73,"date":"2026-10-19","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4863,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.201,"date":"2026-10-07","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7534,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.3383,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.304,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-09-07","punk":8450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3291,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.79,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7811,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.015,"date":"2026-08-07","punk":8505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1965,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0376,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 29.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.0 to 31.2 ETH, 2σ range 26.5 to 33.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Headband -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4009","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}