{"punk":4021,"name":"CryptoPunk #4021","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4021","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4021.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Pink With Hat"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":48.8756,"usd":118430,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.7437,"high_eth":66.8319,"low_usd":86610,"high_usd":161939},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.1402,"high_eth":91.3851,"low_usd":63340,"high_usd":221434},"sigma_log":0.3129,"multiple_of_floor":1.6083,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":48.8756,"usd":118430,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.7437,"high_eth":66.8319,"low_usd":86610,"high_usd":161939},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.1402,"high_eth":91.3851,"low_usd":63340,"high_usd":221434},"sigma_log":0.3129,"multiple_of_floor":1.6083,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 0-1","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2095,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.7},{"pct":29.2,"beta":0.2562,"term":"attr:Pink With Hat","label":"Pink With Hat","sales_12m":9,"weighted_sales":3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 0-1","seen":{"n":18,"cover1":0.778,"cover2":1,"bias_pct":13.4,"within10":0.222,"within25":0.778,"MdALE_pct":19.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":28,"cover1":0.821,"cover2":0.964,"bias_pct":2.3,"within10":0.607,"within25":0.857,"MdALE_pct":9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.64,"date":"2017-07-11","block":4008037,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":55.5703},{"eth":5,"date":"2020-01-17","block":9300256,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":237.4219},{"eth":75,"date":"2023-06-06","block":17417853,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":145,"adjusted_eth":43.8402},{"eth":72,"date":"2023-07-06","block":17636682,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":157,"adjusted_eth":48.754}],"comparables":[{"eth":58,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":5191,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":56.3317,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":50,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":7090,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.7538,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":69,"date":"2026-06-24","punk":4566,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":66.5897,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36.25,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":4769,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4262,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.8,"date":"2026-04-27","punk":4769,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2529,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-04-25","punk":4769,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0377,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":4214,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.733,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":7663,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.7221,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.4657,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 48.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.7 to 66.8 ETH, 2σ range 26.1 to 91.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Pink With Hat +29%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 0-1 sales landed within ±9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±19.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4021","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}