{"punk":4035,"name":"CryptoPunk #4035","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4035","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4035.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Handlebars","Stringy Hair","Vape","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.7277,"usd":76879,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0088,"high_eth":34.7014,"low_usd":70291,"high_usd":84084},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5229,"high_eth":37.9539,"low_usd":64267,"high_usd":91965},"sigma_log":0.0896,"multiple_of_floor":1.044,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.7277,"usd":76879,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0088,"high_eth":34.7014,"low_usd":70291,"high_usd":84084},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5229,"high_eth":37.9539,"low_usd":64267,"high_usd":91965},"sigma_log":0.0896,"multiple_of_floor":1.044,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":59.69,"ask_usd":133453,"z":7.05,"z_text":"7.1σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-05-30T07:07:47.000Z","days_listed":524},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":32,"weighted_sales":11.7},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.5,"date":"2019-05-09","block":7723576,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":34.5341},{"eth":1,"date":"2020-05-03","block":9990285,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":55.2545},{"eth":2.5,"date":"2020-05-27","block":10149703,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":55.0543},{"eth":4.5,"date":"2021-01-08","block":11615469,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":149,"adjusted_eth":29.7293},{"eth":14.5,"date":"2021-02-18","block":11879154,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":179,"adjusted_eth":32.5687},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-04-16","block":12251883,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":37.8888},{"eth":37,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12938002,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":91,"adjusted_eth":34.3337},{"eth":115,"date":"2021-10-20","block":13454310,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":36.4047},{"eth":53.5,"date":"2023-07-12","block":17678555,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":251,"adjusted_eth":32.2273}],"comparables":[{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-08-13","punk":2724,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6583,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.4784,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":6980,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.3296,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2025-10-28","punk":6457,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2212,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.88,"date":"2025-09-03","punk":3383,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6871,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.35,"date":"2025-08-29","punk":3383,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5558,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.69,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":1370,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":34.3064,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0205,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Vape","sales_12m":50},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 31.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 34.7 ETH, 2σ range 26.5 to 38.0 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Handlebars -6%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4035","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}