{"punk":4046,"name":"CryptoPunk #4046","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4046","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4046.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Mole","Stringy Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7695,"usd":69958,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.2102,"high_eth":32.4121,"low_usd":66413,"high_usd":73693},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7299,"high_eth":34.1424,"low_usd":63047,"high_usd":77627},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0125,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.3645,"usd":69038,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8257,"high_eth":31.9855,"low_usd":65539,"high_usd":72723},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3649,"high_eth":33.693,"low_usd":62218,"high_usd":76605},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0125,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":36.9856,"ask_usd":82489,"z":3.54,"z_text":"3.5σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-11-30T21:35:35.000Z","days_listed":340},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2},{"pct":-2.5,"beta":-0.0256,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":99,"weighted_sales":12.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.5,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9215698,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":32.5978},{"eth":1.2,"date":"2020-09-08","block":10818112,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":40.436},{"eth":5.99,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10952965,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":31.0259},{"eth":16.94,"date":"2021-05-12","block":12417839,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":36.3658},{"eth":19.48,"date":"2021-07-14","block":12826755,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":355,"adjusted_eth":29.8216},{"eth":67,"date":"2023-03-16","block":16836738,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":314,"adjusted_eth":29.5533},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-04-21","block":17091286,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-04-21","block":17091286,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":137,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-03-28","block":19531618,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":238,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-03-28","block":19531618,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":253,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-07-24","block":22991393,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":29.3961},{"eth":54,"date":"2025-08-09","block":23105823,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":297,"adjusted_eth":29.4608},{"eth":30.69,"date":"2025-11-30","block":23914201,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":132,"adjusted_eth":29.7285},{"eth":30.8213,"date":"2025-11-30","block":23914201,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":136,"adjusted_eth":29.8557}],"comparables":[{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1452,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8721,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.41,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9715,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.8,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3983,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6588,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-08-19","punk":5917,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2915,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.18,"date":"2026-08-16","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-07-25","punk":5917,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8614,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-07-18","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5932,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0018,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":67},{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89}],"summary":["Estimate 30.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Stringy Hair -3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4046","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}