{"punk":4073,"name":"CryptoPunk #4073","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4073","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4073.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Half Shaved","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7488,"usd":68747,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1901,"high_eth":32.3907,"low_usd":65262,"high_usd":72418},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7105,"high_eth":34.1203,"low_usd":61954,"high_usd":76285},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0118,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.7488,"usd":68747,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1901,"high_eth":32.3907,"low_usd":65262,"high_usd":72418},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7105,"high_eth":34.1203,"low_usd":61954,"high_usd":76285},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0118,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","block":26359875,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":24,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","block":26359875,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":24,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":34,"weighted_sales":15.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":47,"date":"2022-06-14","block":14960093,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":29.7631},{"eth":57.9,"date":"2022-06-18","block":14987347,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":72,"adjusted_eth":28.5878},{"eth":61.55,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14988066,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":20,"adjusted_eth":28.0646},{"eth":71.95,"date":"2022-06-26","block":15027597,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":143,"adjusted_eth":32.3551},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-02-28","block":19323489,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":37.75,"date":"2024-05-07","block":19819078,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":118,"adjusted_eth":29.798},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-05-10","block":19836969,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":229,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":6936,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4824,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6631,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6906,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6631,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7421,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":628,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5071,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-05-24","punk":6822,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0942,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-01-22","punk":9493,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":43.4939,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":9493,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8181,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27,"date":"2025-12-31","punk":2318,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6511,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0029,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66},{"attribute":"Half Shaved","sales_12m":13}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4073","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}