{"punk":4075,"name":"CryptoPunk #4075","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4075","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4075.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Gold Chain","Blonde Short","Green Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.7944,"usd":72194,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.1734,"high_eth":31.5087,"low_usd":68266,"high_usd":76348},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6406,"high_eth":33.3216,"low_usd":64552,"high_usd":80741},"sigma_log":0.0559,"multiple_of_floor":0.9804,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.7944,"usd":72194,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.1734,"high_eth":31.5087,"low_usd":68266,"high_usd":76348},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6406,"high_eth":33.3216,"low_usd":64552,"high_usd":80741},"sigma_log":0.0559,"multiple_of_floor":0.9804,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":58,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":58,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":31.79,"ask_usd":71075,"z":1.16,"z_text":"1.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-11T04:17:11.000Z","days_listed":25},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":-2.9,"beta":-0.0292,"term":"attr:Blonde Short","label":"Blonde Short","sales_12m":22,"weighted_sales":9.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":44.25,"date":"2023-10-05","block":18284012,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":266,"adjusted_eth":31.3463},{"eth":44.8,"date":"2023-10-10","block":18317374,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":29.9356},{"eth":54.95,"date":"2023-11-10","block":18537897,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":191,"adjusted_eth":28.3039},{"eth":29.74,"date":"2026-09-20","block":26020645,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":327,"adjusted_eth":30.4925},{"eth":33.6,"date":"2026-09-23","block":26038408,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":45,"adjusted_eth":30.0325},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-10-08","block":26144787,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":29.2301}],"comparables":[{"eth":43.99,"date":"2025-03-31","punk":7020,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.389,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31.27,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9542,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.201,"date":"2026-10-07","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7534,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.25,"date":"2026-07-22","punk":4710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4262,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9691,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2504,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-04-26","punk":1940,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.359,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.75,"date":"2026-03-05","punk":4710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3063,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.3,"date":"2026-02-12","punk":7482,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.8843,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0292,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Gold Chain","sales_12m":24},{"attribute":"Green Eye Shadow","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 29.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.2 to 31.5 ETH, 2σ range 26.6 to 33.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Blonde Short -3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4075","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}