{"punk":408,"name":"CryptoPunk #408","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/408","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/408.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Cap Forward"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":38.9349,"usd":94342,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.9851,"high_eth":48.9243,"low_usd":75079,"high_usd":118548},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6586,"high_eth":61.4767,"low_usd":59750,"high_usd":148963},"sigma_log":0.2284,"multiple_of_floor":1.2812,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":38.9349,"usd":94342,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.9851,"high_eth":48.9243,"low_usd":75079,"high_usd":118548},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6586,"high_eth":61.4767,"low_usd":59750,"high_usd":148963},"sigma_log":0.2284,"multiple_of_floor":1.2812,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":14.9,"beta":0.1387,"term":"count1","label":"1 attribute (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":3.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":45,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":6489,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":41.4535,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":7998,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.8265,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":80.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1549,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":79.5834,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":47,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":9478,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.0299,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":48.69,"date":"2026-07-28","punk":5631,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.7117,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":41,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7279,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.4091,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":44,"date":"2026-06-19","punk":7409,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.8917,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-06-19","punk":7998,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4569,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1842,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap Forward","sales_12m":24}],"summary":["Estimate 38.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.0 to 48.9 ETH, 2σ range 24.7 to 61.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 1 attribute (vs 3) +15%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/408","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}