{"punk":4124,"name":"CryptoPunk #4124","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4124","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4124.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Purple Hair","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":39.1641,"usd":94898,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.5897,"high_eth":44.3436,"low_usd":83814,"high_usd":107448},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.5495,"high_eth":50.208,"low_usd":74024,"high_usd":121658},"sigma_log":0.1242,"multiple_of_floor":1.2887,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":39.1641,"usd":94898,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.5897,"high_eth":44.3436,"low_usd":83814,"high_usd":107448},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.5495,"high_eth":50.208,"low_usd":74024,"high_usd":121658},"sigma_log":0.1242,"multiple_of_floor":1.2887,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":47,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11907143,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":230,"adjusted_eth":60.78},{"eth":73,"date":"2021-12-06","block":13752803,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":32.2968},{"eth":84.99,"date":"2021-12-06","block":13753459,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":37.6015},{"eth":83,"date":"2021-12-27","block":13890287,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":335,"adjusted_eth":37.6754},{"eth":83.9,"date":"2022-01-17","block":14022734,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":34,"adjusted_eth":41.1577},{"eth":88,"date":"2022-02-03","block":14130461,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":38.7864},{"eth":80,"date":"2022-03-11","block":14368347,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":32.8541},{"eth":91.95,"date":"2022-03-12","block":14368866,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":13,"adjusted_eth":39.6926}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5394,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3289,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7725,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":55,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":8264,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":53.418,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.311,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0481,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5942,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0715,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.45,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4059,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7922,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37.49,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1317,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.19,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Hair","sales_12m":6},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 39.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.6 to 44.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.5 to 50.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4124","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}