{"punk":4140,"name":"CryptoPunk #4140","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4140","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4140.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Blonde Short","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.9869,"usd":75084,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4096,"high_eth":32.6487,"low_usd":71262,"high_usd":79110},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9127,"high_eth":34.3996,"low_usd":67635,"high_usd":83353},"sigma_log":0.0522,"multiple_of_floor":1.0196,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.9869,"usd":75084,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4096,"high_eth":32.6487,"low_usd":71262,"high_usd":79110},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9127,"high_eth":34.3996,"low_usd":67635,"high_usd":83353},"sigma_log":0.0522,"multiple_of_floor":1.0196,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":-2.9,"beta":-0.0292,"term":"attr:Blonde Short","label":"Blonde Short","sales_12m":22,"weighted_sales":9.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.151,"date":"2017-06-29","block":3945807,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":11,"adjusted_eth":32.7778},{"eth":0.3,"date":"2018-12-27","block":6961710,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":36.468},{"eth":1.5,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9215594,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":99.0978},{"eth":2,"date":"2020-07-03","block":10386330,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":167,"adjusted_eth":69.0682},{"eth":19.99,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11895313,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":44.8668},{"eth":26,"date":"2021-03-15","block":12041047,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":179,"adjusted_eth":39.507},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2021-03-16","block":12052781,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":147,"adjusted_eth":38.6971},{"eth":32.201,"date":"2026-10-07","block":26140993,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":29.7534},{"eth":31.27,"date":"2026-10-24","block":26260575,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":83,"adjusted_eth":30.9542}],"comparables":[{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8983,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.73,"date":"2026-10-19","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4863,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2301,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.6,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0325,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.74,"date":"2026-09-20","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4925,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.25,"date":"2026-07-22","punk":4710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4262,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2752,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-06-22","punk":7056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9963,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.01,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 31.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.4 to 32.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 34.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Blonde Short -3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-10-24","estimate_date":"2026-10-23","price_eth":31.27,"est_eth":30.1111,"low1":28.475,"high1":31.8411,"low2":26.9279,"high2":33.6705,"z":0.68,"confidence":"Low","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"0.7σ above the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4140","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}