{"punk":4153,"name":"CryptoPunk #4153","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4153","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4153.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mole","Wild White Hair","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":41.2166,"usd":99871,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.2443,"high_eth":48.201,"low_usd":85400,"high_usd":116795},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1374,"high_eth":56.3688,"low_usd":73025,"high_usd":136586},"sigma_log":0.1565,"multiple_of_floor":1.3563,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":41.2166,"usd":99871,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.2443,"high_eth":48.201,"low_usd":85400,"high_usd":116795},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1374,"high_eth":56.3688,"low_usd":73025,"high_usd":136586},"sigma_log":0.1565,"multiple_of_floor":1.3563,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":34.8,"beta":0.2984,"term":"attr:Wild White Hair","label":"Wild White Hair","sales_12m":13,"weighted_sales":4},{"pct":-4.1,"beta":-0.0424,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":9.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":23,"date":"2021-02-18","block":11878943,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":128,"adjusted_eth":51.6608},{"eth":31,"date":"2021-04-10","block":12209992,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":47.8461},{"eth":28,"date":"2021-04-22","block":12287683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":138,"adjusted_eth":43.8619},{"eth":52,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12933861,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":52.6936},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2026-05-20","block":25137023,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":401,"adjusted_eth":34.4325},{"eth":41.53,"date":"2026-06-14","block":25316723,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":128,"adjusted_eth":38.5962}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.49,"date":"2026-04-19","punk":4846,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.2042,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":24.511,"date":"2026-04-18","punk":4846,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.8151,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.35,"date":"2026-01-25","punk":9727,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.78,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.8,"date":"2025-12-27","punk":7083,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":38.1852,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.5,"date":"2025-10-27","punk":4101,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8965,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46,"date":"2024-12-01","punk":7083,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5178,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.994,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9233,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.46,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9322,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2953,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89}],"summary":["Estimate 41.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.2 to 48.2 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 56.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Wild White Hair +35%, Clown Eyes Green -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4153","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}