{"punk":416,"name":"CryptoPunk #416","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/416","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/416.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Smile","Hoodie","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":133.888,"usd":304411,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":65.5445,"high_eth":273.4935,"low_usd":149024,"high_usd":621822},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":32.0871,"high_eth":558.666,"low_usd":72954,"high_usd":1270198},"sigma_log":0.7143,"multiple_of_floor":4.4057,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":132.1257,"usd":300405,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":64.6818,"high_eth":269.8937,"low_usd":147062,"high_usd":613638},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.6648,"high_eth":551.3127,"low_usd":71994,"high_usd":1253480},"sigma_log":0.7143,"multiple_of_floor":4.4057,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":237.6,"beta":1.2167,"term":"attr:Hoodie","label":"Hoodie","sales_12m":20,"weighted_sales":7.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":65,"date":"2021-03-22","block":12086581,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":308,"adjusted_eth":95.0902},{"eth":250,"date":"2022-04-15","block":14590244,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":117.24}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":157.5597,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":165,"date":"2026-06-18","punk":9953,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":151.3257,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":205,"date":"2026-05-04","punk":6634,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":198.6414,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":5655,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.1741,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":120,"date":"2026-01-20","punk":9901,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":132.1145,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":7917,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0272,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":5233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.7766,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":129,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":4653,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":74.4126,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":1.4196,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 134 ETH (beta), 1σ range 65.5 to 273 ETH, 2σ range 32.1 to 559 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Smile +17%, Hoodie +238%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/416","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}