{"punk":4161,"name":"CryptoPunk #4161","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4161","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4161.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Earring","Mohawk Dark"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7154,"usd":69835,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.159,"high_eth":32.3549,"low_usd":66297,"high_usd":73563},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6814,"high_eth":34.0818,"low_usd":62937,"high_usd":77489},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0107,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.3111,"usd":68916,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.7752,"high_eth":31.929,"low_usd":65424,"high_usd":72595},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3171,"high_eth":33.6332,"low_usd":62109,"high_usd":76469},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0107,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.44,"date":"2017-07-11","block":4009468,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":37.7017},{"eth":0.25,"date":"2017-08-15","block":4161339,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":171,"adjusted_eth":31.2396},{"eth":7.9,"date":"2021-02-13","block":11846156,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":32.9057},{"eth":13.79,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11896837,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":210,"adjusted_eth":30.5437},{"eth":23.49,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201286,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":35.7778},{"eth":29,"date":"2021-07-05","block":12766723,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":48.7232},{"eth":109.99,"date":"2021-10-04","block":13353968,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":144,"adjusted_eth":27.6612},{"eth":79.42,"date":"2021-11-09","block":13579707,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":590,"adjusted_eth":28.3548},{"eth":68,"date":"2022-07-08","block":15104863,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":28.3436},{"eth":65.99,"date":"2023-01-04","block":16333787,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":908,"adjusted_eth":30.0766},{"eth":47,"date":"2023-08-30","block":18024560,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":295,"adjusted_eth":29.0925},{"eth":52.39,"date":"2025-07-30","block":23029234,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":252,"adjusted_eth":29.1823}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-01-15","punk":2127,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1751,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":45.85,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":8544,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1014,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":41.85,"date":"2025-06-27","punk":8544,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1816,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.8,"date":"2026-11-03","punk":1721,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3441,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-18","punk":9912,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.3537,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.7,"date":"2026-09-01","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7367,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.1899,"date":"2026-08-18","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9806,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.05,"date":"2026-08-04","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.4829,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":306},{"attribute":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","No attribute of this punk has a clear premium in recent sales, so the estimate is the type multiple.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4161","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}