{"punk":4176,"name":"CryptoPunk #4176","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4176","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4176.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Earring","Straight Hair Blonde","Medical Mask","Green Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":5,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5303,"usd":76400,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8217,"high_eth":33.3367,"low_usd":72260,"high_usd":80778},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2057,"high_eth":35.2466,"low_usd":68345,"high_usd":85405},"sigma_log":0.0557,"multiple_of_floor":1.0375,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.5303,"usd":76400,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8217,"high_eth":33.3367,"low_usd":72260,"high_usd":80778},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2057,"high_eth":35.2466,"low_usd":68345,"high_usd":85405},"sigma_log":0.0557,"multiple_of_floor":1.0375,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":49,"ask_usd":109553,"z":7.92,"z_text":"7.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2024-02-12T20:17:59.000Z","days_listed":997},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.15,"date":"2018-01-13","block":4902620,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":56.9813},{"eth":13.5,"date":"2021-01-04","block":11588898,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":82.3825},{"eth":15,"date":"2021-01-12","block":11640710,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":93.0306},{"eth":19,"date":"2021-01-25","block":11726358,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":221,"adjusted_eth":133.9698},{"eth":85,"date":"2021-03-31","block":12144297,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":162.4623},{"eth":88.99,"date":"2022-06-20","block":14999089,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":237,"adjusted_eth":39.4804},{"eth":79.5,"date":"2022-11-01","block":15876896,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":36.1732}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":7663,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.7221,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":49.7,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":7663,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.014,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":48.1,"date":"2025-09-15","punk":5060,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8562,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":70,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":9663,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.1529,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36.48,"date":"2025-03-05","punk":5060,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5634,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.96,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":4332,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3596,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":55,"date":"2024-11-29","punk":9663,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.0596,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2024-11-26","punk":4332,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1163,"shared_attributes":3}],"premium_log":0.0274,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Straight Hair Blonde","sales_12m":18},{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12},{"attribute":"Green Eye Shadow","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.8 to 33.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.2 to 35.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4176","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}