{"punk":4209,"name":"CryptoPunk #4209","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4209","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4209.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Bandana","Vape","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.7037,"usd":79244,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1849,"high_eth":35.4328,"low_usd":73140,"high_usd":85857},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.86,"high_eth":38.3896,"low_usd":67507,"high_usd":93021},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0761,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.7037,"usd":79244,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1849,"high_eth":35.4328,"low_usd":73140,"high_usd":85857},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.86,"high_eth":38.3896,"low_usd":67507,"high_usd":93021},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0761,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.25,"date":"2020-07-25","block":10530000,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":154,"adjusted_eth":42.6826},{"eth":3.75,"date":"2020-09-26","block":10940932,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-04-09","block":12202893,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":118,"adjusted_eth":38.3874},{"eth":23,"date":"2021-04-13","block":12229518,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":34.517},{"eth":24.2,"date":"2021-04-13","block":12229552,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":36.3179},{"eth":26.99,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362545,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":222,"adjusted_eth":40.1678}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.1,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4237,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":2666,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4009,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.69,"date":"2025-10-01","punk":9472,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5749,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-04-29","punk":1525,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9236,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.15,"date":"2025-04-21","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4985,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-04-16","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3972,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.44,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":2362,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8553,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-01-19","punk":7962,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.9974,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0098,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Vape","sales_12m":50},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 32.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 35.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 38.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4209","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}