{"punk":4226,"name":"CryptoPunk #4226","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4226","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4226.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Handlebars"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":41.1363,"usd":99677,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.3334,"high_eth":52.3358,"low_usd":78346,"high_usd":126814},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4143,"high_eth":66.5844,"low_usd":61581,"high_usd":161339},"sigma_log":0.2408,"multiple_of_floor":1.3536,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":41.1363,"usd":99677,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.3334,"high_eth":52.3358,"low_usd":78346,"high_usd":126814},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4143,"high_eth":66.5844,"low_usd":61581,"high_usd":161339},"sigma_log":0.2408,"multiple_of_floor":1.3536,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":14.9,"beta":0.1387,"term":"count1","label":"1 attribute (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":3.5},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":32,"weighted_sales":11.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2018-04-17","block":5459259,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":30,"date":"2021-02-18","block":11879033,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":89,"adjusted_eth":67.3836},{"eth":34.99,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11901369,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":138,"adjusted_eth":53.1673},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2021-07-19","block":12857772,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":168,"adjusted_eth":65.3962},{"eth":130,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13236386,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":171,"adjusted_eth":38.7324},{"eth":84.95,"date":"2021-12-17","block":13822220,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":42.3218}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0508,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2004,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7983,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2996,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2898,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6043,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-08-13","punk":2724,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6583,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":41.75,"date":"2026-08-07","punk":1223,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.2205,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2392,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 41.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.3 to 52.3 ETH, 2σ range 25.4 to 66.6 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 1 attribute (vs 3) +15%, Handlebars -6%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4226","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}