{"punk":4239,"name":"CryptoPunk #4239","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4239","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4239.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Rosy Cheeks","Dark Hair","Cigarette","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.8652,"usd":70176,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.241,"high_eth":32.5794,"low_usd":66483,"high_usd":74073},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7023,"high_eth":34.3889,"low_usd":62985,"high_usd":78188},"sigma_log":0.0541,"multiple_of_floor":1.0156,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.4589,"usd":69252,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8561,"high_eth":32.1506,"low_usd":65608,"high_usd":73098},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3377,"high_eth":33.9363,"low_usd":62156,"high_usd":77158},"sigma_log":0.0541,"multiple_of_floor":1.0156,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.066,"date":"2018-05-06","block":5568735,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":42,"adjusted_eth":26.3912}],"comparables":[{"eth":25.25,"date":"2025-12-29","punk":1000,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2344,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":26.01,"date":"2025-12-22","punk":1000,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9118,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29.69,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":7366,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7227,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.42,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":7366,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.42,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.01,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":5032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.083,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.01,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":5032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0983,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.99,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":7366,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1042,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.5,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":7366,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1322,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0049,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Rosy Cheeks","sales_12m":20},{"attribute":"Dark Hair","sales_12m":17},{"attribute":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":66}],"summary":["Estimate 30.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4239","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}