{"punk":4240,"name":"CryptoPunk #4240","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4240","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4240.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Buck Teeth","Goat","Earring"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.7233,"usd":88984,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.1712,"high_eth":40.6557,"low_usd":80377,"high_usd":98512},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9628,"high_eth":45.0091,"low_usd":72602,"high_usd":109061},"sigma_log":0.1017,"multiple_of_floor":1.2084,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.7233,"usd":88984,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.1712,"high_eth":40.6557,"low_usd":80377,"high_usd":98512},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9628,"high_eth":45.0091,"low_usd":72602,"high_usd":109061},"sigma_log":0.1017,"multiple_of_floor":1.2084,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1,"date":"2019-05-24","block":7822129,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":116,"adjusted_eth":70.6744},{"eth":5,"date":"2020-07-15","block":10464032,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":207,"adjusted_eth":170.7303},{"eth":12,"date":"2020-09-11","block":10839683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":148,"adjusted_eth":264.2609},{"eth":142,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13112147,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":242,"adjusted_eth":31.3397},{"eth":88.88,"date":"2021-12-25","block":13876078,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":41.2691},{"eth":46.66,"date":"2025-03-23","block":22110389,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":35.4588},{"eth":65,"date":"2025-08-09","block":23106360,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":322,"adjusted_eth":35.9351}],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.3992,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1206,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2186,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.001,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7685,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.64,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2224,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0568,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.88,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":8332,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7292,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1701,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":8332,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9682,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-01-06","punk":1823,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9335,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1257,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Buck Teeth","sales_12m":3}],"summary":["Estimate 36.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.2 to 40.7 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 45.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Goat -7%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4240","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}