{"punk":4256,"name":"CryptoPunk #4256","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4256","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4256.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Headband","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.0842,"usd":80166,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.519,"high_eth":35.8651,"low_usd":73950,"high_usd":86904},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.1527,"high_eth":38.8797,"low_usd":68216,"high_usd":94209},"sigma_log":0.0807,"multiple_of_floor":1.0887,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":33.0842,"usd":80166,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.519,"high_eth":35.8651,"low_usd":73950,"high_usd":86904},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.1527,"high_eth":38.8797,"low_usd":68216,"high_usd":94209},"sigma_log":0.0807,"multiple_of_floor":1.0887,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.3,"date":"2020-05-26","block":10143246,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":31.8605},{"eth":6.31,"date":"2020-10-05","block":10994455,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":138,"adjusted_eth":36.8771},{"eth":115,"date":"2021-10-23","block":13476048,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":36.8073},{"eth":75,"date":"2022-12-13","block":16176573,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":35.3372},{"eth":75,"date":"2023-02-02","block":16543056,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":182,"adjusted_eth":35.6188},{"eth":79,"date":"2023-02-06","block":16566350,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":299,"adjusted_eth":37.542},{"eth":61.99,"date":"2024-02-19","block":19264013,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":347,"adjusted_eth":33.1202},{"eth":23.99,"date":"2024-08-18","block":20554713,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":31.9062},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-07-21","block":25582460,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":417,"adjusted_eth":31.7196}],"comparables":[{"eth":44.49,"date":"2025-02-06","punk":4550,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.0643,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-02-06","punk":4550,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.0459,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-02-04","punk":4550,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.9654,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-02-03","punk":4550,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2487,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3298,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.98,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2898,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.6,"date":"2026-07-19","punk":8992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0695,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0213,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 33.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.5 to 35.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.2 to 38.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4256","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}