{"punk":4261,"name":"CryptoPunk #4261","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4261","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4261.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Silver Chain","Normal Beard Black","Do-rag","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.2493,"usd":85412,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.9407,"high_eth":38.9006,"low_usd":77395,"high_usd":94259},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.9427,"high_eth":42.9301,"low_usd":70131,"high_usd":104023},"sigma_log":0.0986,"multiple_of_floor":1.1599,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.2493,"usd":85412,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.9407,"high_eth":38.9006,"low_usd":77395,"high_usd":94259},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.9427,"high_eth":42.9301,"low_usd":70131,"high_usd":104023},"sigma_log":0.0986,"multiple_of_floor":1.1599,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":510,"ask_usd":1140245,"z":27.1,"z_text":"27.1σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-03-02T01:51:44.000Z","days_listed":2075},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8471541,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":147,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":0.65,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9210792,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":42.9424},{"eth":3.25,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10868261,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":259,"adjusted_eth":51.1749},{"eth":5.5,"date":"2020-10-25","block":11126383,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":165,"adjusted_eth":42.3152},{"eth":2.4,"date":"2020-12-14","block":11453164,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":23.5277},{"eth":3.2,"date":"2020-12-22","block":11503217,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":24.312},{"eth":5.5,"date":"2020-12-23","block":11508987,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":200,"adjusted_eth":41.7863},{"eth":7.85,"date":"2021-02-09","block":11823236,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":249,"adjusted_eth":40.4342},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11901490,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":185,"adjusted_eth":31.9095},{"eth":36,"date":"2021-02-25","block":11925003,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":257,"adjusted_eth":50.8856}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-09-18","punk":2762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2663,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.95,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9548,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.99,"date":"2026-05-08","punk":2762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3408,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.701,"date":"2026-04-20","punk":2762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3782,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7059,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.69,"date":"2026-04-12","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.45,"date":"2026-04-11","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0815,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.49,"date":"2026-01-27","punk":8627,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4863,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0847,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Silver Chain","sales_12m":20},{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 35.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.9 to 38.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.9 to 42.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4261","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}