{"punk":428,"name":"CryptoPunk #428","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/428","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/428.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.9361,"usd":72538,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.2813,"high_eth":36.9079,"low_usd":58836,"high_usd":89431},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":19.6947,"high_eth":45.5032,"low_usd":47722,"high_usd":110258},"sigma_log":0.2094,"multiple_of_floor":0.9851,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.9361,"usd":72538,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.2813,"high_eth":36.9079,"low_usd":58836,"high_usd":89431},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":19.6947,"high_eth":45.5032,"low_usd":47722,"high_usd":110258},"sigma_log":0.2094,"multiple_of_floor":0.9851,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 0-1","terms":[{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":15.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 0-1","seen":{"n":18,"cover1":0.778,"cover2":1,"bias_pct":13.4,"within10":0.222,"within25":0.778,"MdALE_pct":19.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":28,"cover1":0.821,"cover2":0.964,"bias_pct":2.3,"within10":0.607,"within25":0.857,"MdALE_pct":9}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":6370,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9763,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-26","punk":2486,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8955,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":5264,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.687,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.24,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":5264,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9346,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":62,"date":"2026-10-22","punk":1603,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":60.2552,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":6263,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7661,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":1859,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.158,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":6936,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4824,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0245,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 29.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 24.3 to 36.9 ETH, 2σ range 19.7 to 45.5 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 0-1 sales landed within ±9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±19.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/428","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}