{"punk":4309,"name":"CryptoPunk #4309","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4309","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4309.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Earring","Dark Hair","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.8054,"usd":70040,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1854,"high_eth":32.5153,"low_usd":66357,"high_usd":73928},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6506,"high_eth":34.32,"low_usd":62867,"high_usd":78031},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":1.0137,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.3999,"usd":69118,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8013,"high_eth":32.0873,"low_usd":65483,"high_usd":72955},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.2867,"high_eth":33.8683,"low_usd":62040,"high_usd":77004},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":1.0137,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":15.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":628,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1187,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29.79,"date":"2026-03-11","punk":5629,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3982,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40.99,"date":"2025-03-27","punk":6718,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9313,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.39,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":6718,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2609,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.96,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":4332,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.96,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2024-11-26","punk":4332,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":27.7462,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":6370,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5028,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-26","punk":2486,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5152,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0029,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":67},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":306},{"attribute":"Dark Hair","sales_12m":17}],"summary":["Estimate 30.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.5 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4309","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}