{"punk":4312,"name":"CryptoPunk #4312","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4312","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4312.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Headband","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.3376,"usd":85626,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2603,"high_eth":38.7086,"low_usd":78169,"high_usd":93794},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4509,"high_eth":42.4011,"low_usd":71362,"high_usd":102741},"sigma_log":0.0911,"multiple_of_floor":1.1628,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.3376,"usd":85626,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2603,"high_eth":38.7086,"low_usd":78169,"high_usd":93794},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4509,"high_eth":42.4011,"low_usd":71362,"high_usd":102741},"sigma_log":0.0911,"multiple_of_floor":1.1628,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8471541,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":0.5,"date":"2019-12-26","block":9165910,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":113,"adjusted_eth":39.9868},{"eth":6.6,"date":"2021-02-09","block":11823325,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":200,"adjusted_eth":33.9956},{"eth":18.99,"date":"2021-03-10","block":12011966,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":45,"adjusted_eth":33.9674},{"eth":27.49,"date":"2021-03-14","block":12033384,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":39.782},{"eth":15,"date":"2021-04-04","block":12173413,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":195,"adjusted_eth":32.5607},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12929924,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":148,"adjusted_eth":35.1619},{"eth":50,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12961085,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":146,"adjusted_eth":44.0562},{"eth":54,"date":"2023-09-21","block":18184296,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":359,"adjusted_eth":35.3}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.59,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8272,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9174,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.6,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":4164,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3812,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":4256,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7196,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.69,"date":"2025-04-26","punk":8716,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2626,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.99,"date":"2025-03-31","punk":5500,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2432,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.49,"date":"2025-02-06","punk":4550,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.0643,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-02-06","punk":4550,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.0459,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-02-04","punk":4550,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.9654,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0872,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 35.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.3 to 38.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.5 to 42.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Chinstrap -5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4312","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}