{"punk":4341,"name":"CryptoPunk #4341","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4341","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4341.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Frumpy Hair","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.4119,"usd":76114,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9549,"high_eth":34.0773,"low_usd":70160,"high_usd":82572},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6902,"high_eth":36.9689,"low_usd":64673,"high_usd":89579},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0336,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.4119,"usd":76114,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9549,"high_eth":34.0773,"low_usd":70160,"high_usd":82572},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6902,"high_eth":36.9689,"low_usd":64673,"high_usd":89579},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0336,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":30.15,"date":"2026-09-04","block":25905152,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":29.8067},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-09-22","block":26029593,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":229,"adjusted_eth":29.987},{"eth":32.1,"date":"2026-09-22","block":26032180,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":1179,"adjusted_eth":30.0808},{"eth":31.374,"date":"2026-09-25","block":26057352,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":427,"adjusted_eth":28.3009},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-09-28","block":26076397,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":329,"adjusted_eth":29.7853},{"eth":33.94,"date":"2026-10-05","block":26124840,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":742,"adjusted_eth":31.2746}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.98,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":1393,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9901,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":115,"date":"2026-05-04","punk":7213,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":112.9192,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":101,"date":"2026-04-23","punk":7213,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":105.841,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-03-23","punk":6771,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2802,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48,"date":"2026-02-18","punk":9668,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":48.8683,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-12-16","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":50.6406,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8253,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0306,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 31.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 34.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.7 to 37.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4341","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}