{"punk":4351,"name":"CryptoPunk #4351","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4351","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4351.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Frumpy Hair","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":29.3679,"usd":66772,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7511,"high_eth":31.0791,"low_usd":63096,"high_usd":70662},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.2232,"high_eth":32.8899,"low_usd":59622,"high_usd":74779},"sigma_log":0.0566,"multiple_of_floor":0.9664,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":28.9814,"usd":65893,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.3858,"high_eth":30.67,"low_usd":62265,"high_usd":69732},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.878,"high_eth":32.457,"low_usd":58837,"high_usd":73795},"sigma_log":0.0566,"multiple_of_floor":0.9664,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":30.42,"ask_usd":73710,"z":0.62,"z_text":"0.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-20T15:22:47.000Z","days_listed":16},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2},{"pct":-7,"beta":-0.0723,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":31.721,"date":"2026-10-02","block":26106349,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":959,"adjusted_eth":28.8364}],"comparables":[{"eth":53.84,"date":"2025-07-31","punk":6365,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0512,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.3,"date":"2025-04-03","punk":6365,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7928,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2025-02-06","punk":6321,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9899,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.2,"date":"2025-02-05","punk":5293,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3142,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.89,"date":"2024-12-16","punk":5293,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1411,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2024-12-03","punk":5293,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.4715,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.994,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5163,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.46,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5514,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0449,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":67},{"attribute":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":60}],"summary":["Estimate 29.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 31.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.2 to 32.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Clown Nose -7%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4351","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}