{"punk":4368,"name":"CryptoPunk #4368","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4368","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4368.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Earring","Headband","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.3681,"usd":73584,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.7649,"high_eth":32.0607,"low_usd":69700,"high_usd":77686},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.2463,"high_eth":33.8476,"low_usd":66020,"high_usd":82016},"sigma_log":0.0542,"multiple_of_floor":0.9993,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.3681,"usd":73584,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.7649,"high_eth":32.0607,"low_usd":69700,"high_usd":77686},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.2463,"high_eth":33.8476,"low_usd":66020,"high_usd":82016},"sigma_log":0.0542,"multiple_of_floor":0.9993,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":36,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":36,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":-3.7,"beta":-0.0376,"term":"attr:Headband","label":"Headband","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":85,"date":"2021-08-24","block":13085553,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":34.2139},{"eth":108.69,"date":"2021-09-28","block":13317296,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":30.7264},{"eth":115.99,"date":"2021-09-30","block":13326253,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":127,"adjusted_eth":29.951},{"eth":70,"date":"2021-12-04","block":13737604,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":117,"adjusted_eth":29.1451},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-04-27","block":14665758,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":118,"adjusted_eth":34.339},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2025-04-07","block":22215977,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":30.3258}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.6,"date":"2026-02-26","punk":5055,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1456,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":24,"date":"2026-02-12","punk":5055,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":24.4342,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-08-13","punk":5055,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1433,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.8,"date":"2026-11-03","punk":1721,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7889,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8017,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.7,"date":"2026-09-01","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1333,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.79,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7811,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.1899,"date":"2026-08-18","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3805,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0102,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 30.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.8 to 32.1 ETH, 2σ range 27.2 to 33.8 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Headband -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4368","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}