{"punk":4378,"name":"CryptoPunk #4378","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4378","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4378.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Front Beard Dark","Mohawk Dark","VR"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.024,"usd":96981,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.0502,"high_eth":45.7035,"low_usd":84930,"high_usd":110743},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.6945,"high_eth":52.189,"low_usd":74375,"high_usd":126458},"sigma_log":0.1327,"multiple_of_floor":1.317,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":40.024,"usd":96981,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.0502,"high_eth":45.7035,"low_usd":84930,"high_usd":110743},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.6945,"high_eth":52.189,"low_usd":74375,"high_usd":126458},"sigma_log":0.1327,"multiple_of_floor":1.317,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0756,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13.3},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0795,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.5},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":65,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12957333,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":57.2731},{"eth":89,"date":"2022-02-25","block":14276486,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":42.966}],"comparables":[{"eth":35,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":8655,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7882,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":8863,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1944,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-03-16","punk":8863,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4747,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2026-03-10","punk":8056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.007,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-02-11","punk":9305,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5502,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.36,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":8863,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.6766,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.499,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":9176,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.399,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":7608,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3999,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2117,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 40.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.1 to 45.7 ETH, 2σ range 30.7 to 52.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Front Beard Dark -7%, Mohawk Dark -8%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4378","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}