{"punk":441,"name":"CryptoPunk #441","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/441","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/441.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Stringy Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":29.6344,"usd":67377,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.0452,"high_eth":32.4714,"low_usd":61491,"high_usd":73828},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6823,"high_eth":35.58,"low_usd":56118,"high_usd":80896},"sigma_log":0.0914,"multiple_of_floor":0.9751,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.2443,"usd":66491,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.6892,"high_eth":32.044,"low_usd":60681,"high_usd":72856},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.3574,"high_eth":35.1117,"low_usd":55380,"high_usd":79831},"sigma_log":0.0914,"multiple_of_floor":0.9751,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":99,"weighted_sales":25.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":20,"date":"2021-03-12","block":12022784,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":139,"adjusted_eth":27.2884},{"eth":21.97,"date":"2021-03-15","block":12043770,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":32.944},{"eth":18.5,"date":"2021-04-11","block":12219623,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":178,"adjusted_eth":28.0919},{"eth":19.2,"date":"2021-04-11","block":12220600,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":79,"adjusted_eth":29.1548},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-07-07","block":12782666,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":164,"adjusted_eth":29.99},{"eth":18.95,"date":"2021-07-09","block":12795689,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":260,"adjusted_eth":30.7694},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-13","block":12816435,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":167,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":19,"date":"2021-07-18","block":12848111,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":108,"adjusted_eth":28.8511},{"eth":46.46,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12968931,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":347,"adjusted_eth":28.4354},{"eth":60,"date":"2022-01-06","block":13954951,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":43,"adjusted_eth":30.015},{"eth":59.95,"date":"2022-01-15","block":14006761,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":28.7664},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-01-17","block":14023952,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":38.33,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8093,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.88,"date":"2026-06-12","punk":8659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.9666,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":8659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.1558,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.22,"date":"2026-01-26","punk":8659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4274,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.15,"date":"2025-04-27","punk":5643,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7977,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2025-03-02","punk":4297,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4982,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2024-11-14","punk":4297,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.4535,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.562,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0885,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":57}],"summary":["Estimate 29.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.0 to 32.5 ETH, 2σ range 24.7 to 35.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/441","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}