{"punk":4420,"name":"CryptoPunk #4420","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4420","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4420.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Spots","Wild Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5303,"usd":76400,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8795,"high_eth":33.2722,"low_usd":72400,"high_usd":80621},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3152,"high_eth":35.1104,"low_usd":68610,"high_usd":85075},"sigma_log":0.0538,"multiple_of_floor":1.0375,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.5303,"usd":76400,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8795,"high_eth":33.2722,"low_usd":72400,"high_usd":80621},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3152,"high_eth":35.1104,"low_usd":68610,"high_usd":85075},"sigma_log":0.0538,"multiple_of_floor":1.0375,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.84,"date":"2020-01-05","block":9221761,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":53.1825},{"eth":31.49,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11916253,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":40.8966},{"eth":58,"date":"2023-11-10","block":18539249,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":233,"adjusted_eth":29.8749},{"eth":58.5,"date":"2023-11-11","block":18549000,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":620,"adjusted_eth":29.9295},{"eth":24,"date":"2024-11-01","block":21092085,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":131,"adjusted_eth":28.0739},{"eth":25,"date":"2024-11-01","block":21092709,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":29.2436},{"eth":26.38,"date":"2024-11-08","block":21145907,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":169,"adjusted_eth":30.3785},{"eth":34.99,"date":"2025-02-23","block":21912055,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":656,"adjusted_eth":30.8306},{"eth":45.75,"date":"2025-09-03","block":23283830,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":28.9715},{"eth":46.99,"date":"2025-09-14","block":23361969,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":29.523},{"eth":56.388,"date":"2025-09-15","block":23369823,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":311,"adjusted_eth":35.0006},{"eth":26.5,"date":"2025-12-28","block":24112030,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":357,"adjusted_eth":30.6794},{"eth":28.87,"date":"2026-01-18","block":24261290,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":230,"adjusted_eth":30.0569}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.09,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":2278,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8926,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2026-07-01","punk":4294,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":49.0161,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.87,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":4105,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3169,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.01,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":5032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4575,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.01,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":5032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4864,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.3034,"date":"2025-11-04","punk":1311,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3057,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2025-10-30","punk":1311,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.7905,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-07-10","punk":3811,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3488,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0274,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Spots","sales_12m":14},{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":52}],"summary":["Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 33.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 35.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4420","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}