{"punk":4426,"name":"CryptoPunk #4426","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4426","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4426.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mole","Goat","Bandana","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":31.8142,"usd":72334,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0925,"high_eth":34.7905,"low_usd":66146,"high_usd":79101},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6038,"high_eth":38.0452,"low_usd":60487,"high_usd":86501},"sigma_log":0.0894,"multiple_of_floor":1.0469,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":31.3955,"usd":71382,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.7096,"high_eth":34.3326,"low_usd":65275,"high_usd":78060},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.2536,"high_eth":37.5444,"low_usd":59691,"high_usd":85362},"sigma_log":0.0894,"multiple_of_floor":1.0469,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":42.5,"ask_usd":102981,"z":3.24,"z_text":"3.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-04-15T23:16:11.000Z","days_listed":568},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.7},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0761,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":16.8},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":4.4,"date":"2021-01-14","block":11655631,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":70,"adjusted_eth":28.6861},{"eth":4.44,"date":"2021-01-15","block":11658898,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":212,"adjusted_eth":27.7987},{"eth":22,"date":"2021-03-06","block":11981446,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":258,"adjusted_eth":37.7017},{"eth":75,"date":"2022-02-13","block":14198127,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":30.943},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-03-25","block":14455369,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":148,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-04-13","block":14577199,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":370,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-04-30","block":14686057,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-05-17","block":14790235,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":126,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-06-24","block":15016491,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":298,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-08-20","block":15375430,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":460,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-08-24","block":15403370,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-09-10","block":15506586,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":272,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-12-02","block":16098680,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":104,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-01-16","block":16417820,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-02-28","block":16724338,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":525,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":65,"date":"2023-11-10","block":18538298,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":97,"adjusted_eth":33.0398},{"eth":48.69,"date":"2025-04-15","block":22277580,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":501,"adjusted_eth":34.4228}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.99,"date":"2026-08-31","punk":2687,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.8024,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1835,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8413,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.65,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9496,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.501,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.501,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.86,"date":"2026-08-31","punk":9065,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.9306,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.94,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":4052,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8235,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4,"date":"2026-05-13","punk":4052,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.7488,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0175,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 31.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 34.8 ETH, 2σ range 26.6 to 38.0 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Mole -7%, Goat -7%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4426","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}