{"punk":4427,"name":"CryptoPunk #4427","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4427","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4427.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Normal Beard Black","Knitted Cap"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.9822,"usd":87188,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6962,"high_eth":39.5985,"low_usd":79226,"high_usd":95950},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7102,"high_eth":43.5783,"low_usd":71990,"high_usd":105594},"sigma_log":0.0958,"multiple_of_floor":1.184,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.9822,"usd":87188,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6962,"high_eth":39.5985,"low_usd":79226,"high_usd":95950},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7102,"high_eth":43.5783,"low_usd":71990,"high_usd":105594},"sigma_log":0.0958,"multiple_of_floor":1.184,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.09,"date":"2018-03-17","block":5272964,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":27.351},{"eth":0.5,"date":"2020-02-16","block":9496214,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":25.7542},{"eth":0.65,"date":"2020-04-10","block":9846533,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":34.0578},{"eth":62,"date":"2023-08-08","block":17872729,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":253,"adjusted_eth":39.86},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2025-11-11","block":23774519,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":545,"adjusted_eth":32.5986},{"eth":35.5,"date":"2025-11-20","block":23842427,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":407,"adjusted_eth":35.9735}],"comparables":[{"eth":56,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":5142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5272,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-07-23","punk":5078,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2932,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-06-23","punk":3095,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6215,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.5,"date":"2025-01-23","punk":5142,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":33.8089,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-01-22","punk":3095,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.8176,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41,"date":"2024-11-23","punk":3095,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0589,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3734,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1053,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21},{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 36.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4427","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}