{"punk":4435,"name":"CryptoPunk #4435","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4435","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4435.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mole","Gold Chain","Front Beard","Cap","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":5,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.2464,"usd":78136,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4997,"high_eth":35.2488,"low_usd":71480,"high_usd":85411},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.987,"high_eth":38.5308,"low_usd":65392,"high_usd":93363},"sigma_log":0.089,"multiple_of_floor":1.0611,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.2464,"usd":78136,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4997,"high_eth":35.2488,"low_usd":71480,"high_usd":85411},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.987,"high_eth":38.5308,"low_usd":65392,"high_usd":93363},"sigma_log":0.089,"multiple_of_floor":1.0611,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":125,"ask_usd":279472,"z":15.22,"z_text":"15.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-07-05T16:29:59.000Z","days_listed":123},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0757,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":36.8,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4851,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-09-10","punk":6669,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5034,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.49,"date":"2026-08-30","punk":5975,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7752,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-04-28","punk":8788,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7049,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.98,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":6755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4944,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.95,"date":"2026-02-20","punk":1834,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.6618,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.25,"date":"2026-01-22","punk":5122,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.72,"date":"2026-01-21","punk":5122,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6942,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0043,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Gold Chain","sales_12m":24},{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 32.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.5 to 35.2 ETH, 2σ range 27.0 to 38.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Mole -7%, Front Beard -7%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4435","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}