{"punk":4444,"name":"CryptoPunk #4444","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4444","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4444.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mole","Normal Beard Black","Shaved Head"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.2978,"usd":70991,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.6587,"high_eth":32.1983,"low_usd":64596,"high_usd":78019},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.2572,"high_eth":35.3858,"low_usd":58777,"high_usd":85743},"sigma_log":0.0944,"multiple_of_floor":0.9641,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.2978,"usd":70991,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.6587,"high_eth":32.1983,"low_usd":64596,"high_usd":78019},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.2572,"high_eth":35.3858,"low_usd":58777,"high_usd":85743},"sigma_log":0.0944,"multiple_of_floor":0.9641,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":99,"ask_usd":221342,"z":12.9,"z_text":"12.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-01-03T05:30:08.000Z","days_listed":1767},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":11.44,"date":"2021-01-01","block":11569911,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":63.7911},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-02-05","block":11796340,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":142.4531}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.8,"date":"2026-01-22","punk":4720,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1186,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.5,"date":"2026-01-18","punk":4720,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.5895,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-07-23","punk":5206,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2932,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-05-13","punk":4414,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.6628,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2025-02-24","punk":5206,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7297,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.99,"date":"2024-12-02","punk":6276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.089,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.1002,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21}],"summary":["Estimate 29.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.7 to 32.2 ETH, 2σ range 24.3 to 35.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Mole -7%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4444","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}