{"punk":4447,"name":"CryptoPunk #4447","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4447","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4447.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Goat","Cap"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.3437,"usd":80795,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7397,"high_eth":36.1684,"low_usd":74485,"high_usd":87639},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.339,"high_eth":39.2323,"low_usd":68668,"high_usd":95063},"sigma_log":0.0813,"multiple_of_floor":1.0972,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":33.3437,"usd":80795,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7397,"high_eth":36.1684,"low_usd":74485,"high_usd":87639},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.339,"high_eth":39.2323,"low_usd":68668,"high_usd":95063},"sigma_log":0.0813,"multiple_of_floor":1.0972,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":16,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11897625,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":24.312},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-04-06","block":12186852,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":143,"adjusted_eth":36.468},{"eth":21.75,"date":"2021-04-20","block":12278449,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":88,"adjusted_eth":33.9488},{"eth":23,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12363244,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":34.2297},{"eth":71,"date":"2022-02-24","block":14265926,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":34.0061},{"eth":74.95,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14992589,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":34.1745},{"eth":76,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14993338,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":160,"adjusted_eth":34.6533},{"eth":78,"date":"2022-06-24","block":15018943,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":37.0668},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-07-17","block":15159500,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":171,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":40,"date":"2024-05-03","block":19786168,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":32.0823},{"eth":36.99,"date":"2024-05-28","block":19968319,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":201,"adjusted_eth":33.0723},{"eth":27.89,"date":"2024-07-15","block":20308352,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":31.1037},{"eth":27.69,"date":"2024-07-15","block":20312340,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":97,"adjusted_eth":30.8807},{"eth":50.98,"date":"2025-08-22","block":23199026,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":31.618}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4293,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0366,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.17,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":1241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3982,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.3992,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1206,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2186,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.001,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7685,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0291,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38}],"summary":["Estimate 33.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.7 to 36.2 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 39.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Goat -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4447","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}