{"punk":4475,"name":"CryptoPunk #4475","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4475","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4475.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Do-rag","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.9001,"usd":70255,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4295,"high_eth":33.5856,"low_usd":64638,"high_usd":76361},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.1563,"high_eth":36.5044,"low_usd":59470,"high_usd":82997},"sigma_log":0.0833,"multiple_of_floor":1.0168,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.4934,"usd":69331,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.0553,"high_eth":33.1435,"low_usd":63787,"high_usd":75356},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.812,"high_eth":36.0239,"low_usd":58687,"high_usd":81905},"sigma_log":0.0833,"multiple_of_floor":1.0168,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":52,"weighted_sales":18}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2.9,"date":"2020-09-26","block":10940711,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":50,"adjusted_eth":28.9903},{"eth":4.85,"date":"2021-01-29","block":11748749,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":29.7447},{"eth":11,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11877056,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":82,"adjusted_eth":25.6126},{"eth":13.3,"date":"2021-02-18","block":11881405,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":316,"adjusted_eth":29.4802}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.95,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9548,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9431,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2886,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.69,"date":"2026-04-12","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8548,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.45,"date":"2026-04-11","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.6592,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.49,"date":"2026-01-27","punk":8627,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.085,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":3020,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4388,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":9548,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3072,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.9,"date":"2025-05-22","punk":5864,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2014,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0467,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 30.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 33.6 ETH, 2σ range 26.2 to 36.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4475","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}