{"punk":4484,"name":"CryptoPunk #4484","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4484","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4484.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Headband","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":33.8908,"usd":77055,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1853,"high_eth":36.8311,"low_usd":70904,"high_usd":83740},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6956,"high_eth":40.0265,"low_usd":65243,"high_usd":91005},"sigma_log":0.0832,"multiple_of_floor":1.1152,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T20:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":33.4447,"usd":76041,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7748,"high_eth":36.3463,"low_usd":69970,"high_usd":82638},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3179,"high_eth":39.4997,"low_usd":64384,"high_usd":89808},"sigma_log":0.0832,"multiple_of_floor":1.1152,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T20:04:35.000Z","block":26350905,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T20:04:35.000Z","block":26350905,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.125,"date":"2018-10-11","block":6495400,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":31.2396},{"eth":0.29,"date":"2019-02-23","block":7257398,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":102,"adjusted_eth":28.9903},{"eth":0.43,"date":"2020-01-02","block":9203426,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":29.3084},{"eth":5.5,"date":"2021-02-04","block":11791892,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":286,"adjusted_eth":31.1217},{"eth":24.9,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11891831,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":182,"adjusted_eth":55.1515}],"comparables":[{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":9872,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.8172,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-30","punk":2298,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9036,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.69,"date":"2026-02-20","punk":2976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8857,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.4,"date":"2026-02-04","punk":2956,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6679,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28,"date":"2026-02-03","punk":2956,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1123,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.95,"date":"2025-12-30","punk":9987,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.5275,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2025-12-04","punk":2565,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.8794,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":65,"date":"2025-08-25","punk":5273,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.4262,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0457,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":57},{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 33.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.2 to 36.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.7 to 40.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 20:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4484","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}