{"punk":4493,"name":"CryptoPunk #4493","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4493","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4493.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Goat","Stringy Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":27.461,"usd":66540,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.4801,"high_eth":30.8049,"low_usd":59317,"high_usd":74643},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.8227,"high_eth":34.5561,"low_usd":52878,"high_usd":83732},"sigma_log":0.1149,"multiple_of_floor":0.9036,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":27.461,"usd":66540,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.4801,"high_eth":30.8049,"low_usd":59317,"high_usd":74643},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.8227,"high_eth":34.5561,"low_usd":52878,"high_usd":83732},"sigma_log":0.1149,"multiple_of_floor":0.9036,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2.9,"date":"2020-09-26","block":10940710,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":29.377},{"eth":4.31,"date":"2021-01-24","block":11721167,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":207,"adjusted_eth":30.3197},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-09","block":12789977,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":347,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-14","block":12826900,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":206,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-21","block":12868389,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":187,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5861,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-04-27","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3015,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.34,"date":"2025-11-05","punk":1054,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4322,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.9,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":1054,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5148,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.25,"date":"2025-02-05","punk":4866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7714,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.25,"date":"2024-12-18","punk":4866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3976,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4293,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.165,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 27.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 24.5 to 30.8 ETH, 2σ range 21.8 to 34.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Goat -7%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4493","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}