{"punk":4494,"name":"CryptoPunk #4494","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4494","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4494.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Smile","Shadow Beard","Wild Hair","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":39.6621,"usd":96105,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.6581,"high_eth":45.3887,"low_usd":83979,"high_usd":109981},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.2854,"high_eth":51.942,"low_usd":73384,"high_usd":125860},"sigma_log":0.1349,"multiple_of_floor":1.3051,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":39.6621,"usd":96105,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.6581,"high_eth":45.3887,"low_usd":83979,"high_usd":109981},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.2854,"high_eth":51.942,"low_usd":73384,"high_usd":125860},"sigma_log":0.1349,"multiple_of_floor":1.3051,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","block":26356886,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","block":26356886,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8472879,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":0.425,"date":"2019-09-13","block":8543392,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":50,"adjusted_eth":43.0525},{"eth":0.95,"date":"2020-01-20","block":9321186,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":42.4566}],"comparables":[{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":5448,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.3115,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-01","punk":5448,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2416,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":88.88,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":83.289,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":95,"date":"2026-07-27","punk":9774,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":89.134,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":2276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.2513,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.99,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":8918,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2357,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.66,"date":"2026-04-25","punk":4791,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1321,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2027,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":52},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 39.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.7 to 45.4 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 51.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 16:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Smile +17%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4494","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}