{"punk":4506,"name":"CryptoPunk #4506","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4506","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4506.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Front Beard","Earring","Beanie"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.5285,"usd":83665,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.6778,"high_eth":37.6359,"low_usd":76758,"high_usd":91195},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0623,"high_eth":41.0229,"low_usd":70420,"high_usd":99402},"sigma_log":0.0862,"multiple_of_floor":1.1362,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.5285,"usd":83665,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.6778,"high_eth":37.6359,"low_usd":76758,"high_usd":91195},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0623,"high_eth":41.0229,"low_usd":70420,"high_usd":99402},"sigma_log":0.0862,"multiple_of_floor":1.1362,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":130,"ask_usd":290651,"z":15.38,"z_text":"15.4σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-11-02T15:19:35.000Z","days_listed":368},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0757,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":220,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12931256,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":143,"adjusted_eth":222.9343},{"eth":130,"date":"2023-12-27","block":18878113,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":170,"adjusted_eth":70.9282},{"eth":134.12,"date":"2024-01-16","block":19022236,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":85,"adjusted_eth":69.8168}],"comparables":[{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.89,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":7310,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.061,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.69,"date":"2026-03-20","punk":2271,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.67,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.4,"date":"2026-03-06","punk":2271,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.33,"date":"2026-01-21","punk":2503,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4904,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.5,"date":"2026-01-21","punk":2503,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5644,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.511,"date":"2026-01-20","punk":2503,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6923,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.064,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Beanie","sales_12m":1}],"summary":["Estimate 34.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.7 to 37.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Front Beard -7%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4506","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}