{"punk":4601,"name":"CryptoPunk #4601","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4601","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4601.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Peak Spike","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.91,"usd":77321,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4465,"high_eth":34.5795,"low_usd":71351,"high_usd":83789},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.1733,"high_eth":37.4723,"low_usd":65843,"high_usd":90798},"sigma_log":0.0803,"multiple_of_floor":1.05,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.91,"usd":77321,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4465,"high_eth":34.5795,"low_usd":71351,"high_usd":83789},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.1733,"high_eth":37.4723,"low_usd":65843,"high_usd":90798},"sigma_log":0.0803,"multiple_of_floor":1.05,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22,"date":"2021-02-27","block":11941475,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":67,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":14.95,"date":"2021-04-03","block":12164288,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":32.4522},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-04-09","block":12203333,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":309,"adjusted_eth":33.5889},{"eth":22.9,"date":"2021-04-12","block":12227705,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":97,"adjusted_eth":33.9644},{"eth":24.99,"date":"2021-04-14","block":12241116,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":147,"adjusted_eth":37.5035},{"eth":20.75,"date":"2021-07-15","block":12834133,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":98,"adjusted_eth":32.0098},{"eth":22.1,"date":"2021-07-17","block":12844751,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":237,"adjusted_eth":34.4597},{"eth":24.1,"date":"2021-07-25","block":12895778,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":34.8928},{"eth":50,"date":"2021-08-10","block":13000239,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":139,"adjusted_eth":31.4271},{"eth":99,"date":"2021-10-28","block":13507748,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":31.6729},{"eth":92.95,"date":"2021-11-14","block":13614227,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":32.4684},{"eth":64,"date":"2024-01-22","block":19061736,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":178,"adjusted_eth":30.2247},{"eth":42,"date":"2024-04-03","block":19575131,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-01-12","block":21610464,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":553,"adjusted_eth":34.2423}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6043,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.44,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2636,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-06-04","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5973,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.5,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":2830,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3561,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2025-12-11","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4554,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2025-11-24","punk":1331,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.382,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2025-11-20","punk":1704,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.9602,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0148,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 31.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.4 to 34.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.2 to 37.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4601","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}