{"punk":4640,"name":"CryptoPunk #4640","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4640","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4640.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Frown","Top Hat","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":48.5301,"usd":108502,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":39.0432,"high_eth":60.3223,"low_usd":87292,"high_usd":134867},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.4108,"high_eth":74.9798,"low_usd":70227,"high_usd":167638},"sigma_log":0.2175,"multiple_of_floor":1.5969,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":48.5301,"usd":108502,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":39.0432,"high_eth":60.3223,"low_usd":87292,"high_usd":134867},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.4108,"high_eth":74.9798,"low_usd":70227,"high_usd":167638},"sigma_log":0.2175,"multiple_of_floor":1.5969,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","block":26359875,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":24,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","block":26359875,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":24,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":69.25,"ask_usd":154862,"z":1.63,"z_text":"1.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-05-07T22:38:47.000Z","days_listed":183},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0968,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89},{"pct":30.2,"beta":0.2637,"term":"attr:Top Hat","label":"Top Hat","sales_12m":6,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.05,"date":"2017-06-24","block":3924277,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":11.2556},{"eth":1,"date":"2018-10-02","block":6440842,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":34,"adjusted_eth":276.2727},{"eth":11.5,"date":"2020-09-29","block":10956456,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":58.8359},{"eth":16,"date":"2021-02-09","block":11820597,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":82.4136},{"eth":41,"date":"2024-10-23","block":21030111,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":319,"adjusted_eth":47.0185}],"comparables":[{"eth":39.9,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":7368,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9917,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-01-18","punk":9289,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6336,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.69,"date":"2024-11-14","punk":5877,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.562,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3734,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":6066,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.3115,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7711,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8114,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.4045,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 48.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 39.0 to 60.3 ETH, 2σ range 31.4 to 75.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Top Hat +30%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4640","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}