{"punk":4641,"name":"CryptoPunk #4641","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4641","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4641.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Wild Blonde","Cigarette","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.477,"usd":69293,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9286,"high_eth":32.1085,"low_usd":65773,"high_usd":73003},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.4587,"high_eth":33.8272,"low_usd":62431,"high_usd":76911},"sigma_log":0.0521,"multiple_of_floor":1.0029,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.0759,"usd":68381,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.5478,"high_eth":31.6859,"low_usd":64907,"high_usd":72042},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.0973,"high_eth":33.382,"low_usd":61609,"high_usd":75898},"sigma_log":0.0521,"multiple_of_floor":1.0029,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.5},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":15.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.03,"date":"2017-06-23","block":3920120,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"no-floor","log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":2.999},{"eth":0.2,"date":"2017-06-23","block":3920204,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-floor","log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":19.9933}],"comparables":[{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":5264,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.2831,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.24,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":5264,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5406,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2026-05-29","punk":7367,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":53.2252,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":64.88,"date":"2026-04-30","punk":4099,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":63.1737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-01-22","punk":9493,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":42.9215,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":9493,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4388,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.99,"date":"2025-11-24","punk":5108,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.8511,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.4848,"date":"2025-10-07","punk":4859,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0301,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0078,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Wild Blonde","sales_12m":12}],"summary":["Estimate 30.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.9 to 32.1 ETH, 2σ range 27.5 to 33.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Cigarette -2%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4641","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}