{"punk":4679,"name":"CryptoPunk #4679","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4679","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4679.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Do-rag","Pipe"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":37.0127,"usd":89685,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.3502,"high_eth":41.0775,"low_usd":80810,"high_usd":99534},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0501,"high_eth":45.5886,"low_usd":72814,"high_usd":110465},"sigma_log":0.1042,"multiple_of_floor":1.2179,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":37.0127,"usd":89685,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.3502,"high_eth":41.0775,"low_usd":80810,"high_usd":99534},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0501,"high_eth":45.5886,"low_usd":72814,"high_usd":110465},"sigma_log":0.1042,"multiple_of_floor":1.2179,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":3,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":3,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":103,"ask_usd":230285,"z":9.82,"z_text":"9.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-25T17:13:47.000Z","days_listed":437},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.09,"date":"2018-01-18","block":4926898,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":19.7,"date":"2021-02-19","block":11885528,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":224,"adjusted_eth":47.3267},{"eth":105,"date":"2021-11-04","block":13552796,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":407,"adjusted_eth":34.7031},{"eth":99.95,"date":"2021-11-14","block":13615198,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":70,"adjusted_eth":34.9136},{"eth":65,"date":"2021-12-21","block":13849832,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":35.9155},{"eth":80,"date":"2022-01-23","block":14064354,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":204,"adjusted_eth":35.3064},{"eth":76.54,"date":"2022-11-11","block":15949355,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":125,"adjusted_eth":34.9782},{"eth":83.5,"date":"2022-11-18","block":15993893,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":38.1589}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8569,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3878,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.3992,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.29,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1959,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8246,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.987,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3960,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.05,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2996,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3802,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1335,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 37.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.4 to 41.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 45.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4679","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}